FREDERICK POLLS 2101 Wilson Blvd., Suite 104 Arlington, VA 22201 (703) 528-3031 (p) (703) 528-1204 (f) Keith@FrederickPolls.com www.FrederickPolls.com TO: Eliot Cutler Campaign FROM: Keith Frederick; FrederickPolls, LLC DATE: 19 September 2014 RE: Poll Results. September 16-17, 2014. n=400 Likely Voters. Sample Size n=400 Scope: Statewide Random. Interview Dates: September 16-17. Interview Method: Telephone, live callers. 86% landline; 14% cell. Margin of Error: +/- 4.9%. Party Registration Breakdown: 33% Democrat, 28% Republican, 37% Independent, 2% Green Likely November 2014 Voter? Very likely 96%, Somewhat likely 4%. 1. Ballot Vote. In this year's election for Governor between Paul LePage, the Republican, Mike Michaud, the Democrat, and Eliot Cutler, an Independent - which one are you most likely to support? Paul LePage 35 % Mike Michaud 35 Eliot Cutler 19 Undecided 11 This fresh poll of 400 voters conducted Tuesday, September 16th and Wednesday, September 17th shows LePage and Michaud in a dead heat at 35% and Eliot Cutler at 19%. A significant 11% remain undecided. 2. Fluidity. Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the Governor's election, are you leaning toward someone, or are you still trying to decide? still deciding 23% leaning 21 definitely decided 55 With 45% not yet "definitely decided" upon their vote, this 2014 election for Governor remains fluid and open to change. Most of those "definitely decided" are supporting Governor LePage. Among Michaud voters, 40% are either just "leaning" toward him or "still deciding." This equals 14 of his current 35 points. 3. Eliot Cutler is the Clear Second Choice. Which candidate for Governor would be your second choice? Cutler(I) 54% Michaud(D) 19 LePage(R) 6 None/Won't say 22 Fifty-four percent (54%) of Maine voters pick Eliot Cutler as their second choice. Cutler is the second choice of 84% of Michaud voters and 42% of LePage voters... by far more acceptable than either party label candidate or even "none." 4. Cutler vs. LePage. If the election for Governor were just a choice between Paul LePage and Eliot Cutler, which one -- LePage or Cutler -- would you support? Eliot Cutler 50 % Paul LePage 40 Undecided 10 Proof of Cutler's wider appeal comes in his 10-point advantage head-to-head with LePage. Cutler gains 81% of Michaud's votes and even pulls a 54% to 12% lead from the initial 11% undecided. 5. Ratings. Favorable / Unfavorable (%) Susan Collins 74 / 22 Angus King 64 / 28 Mike Michaud 58 / 35 Eliot Cutler 46 / 37 Paul LePage 43 / 54 While Senator Collins holds strong favorable ratings heading into the final stretch of her reelection campaign, Independent Angus King (64-28) also has broad appeal across the state. Michaud maintains highest favorables (58%) of the three gubernatorial candidates suggesting that Republican attempts to raise his negatives have so far fallen short. Cutler maintains a more positive than negative profile. Paul LePage is rated net negative (43% favorable, 54% unfavorable) including an extremely high 45% "very unfavorable." The precise wording & data on the ratings question was: "Tell me if your opinion of each of the following is -- very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable. Here is the first one:" Mike Michaud: Very favorable 31% Somewhat favorable 26% Somewhat unfavorable 15% Very unfavorable 20% DK/Refused 8% Favorable 58% Unfavorable 35% Susan Collins: Very favorable 36% Somewhat favorable 38% Somewhat unfavorable 14% Very unfavorable 8% DK/Refused 4% Favorable 74% Unfavorable 22% Eliot Cutler: Very favorable 11% Somewhat favorable 35% Somewhat unfavorable 22% Very unfavorable 15% DK/Refused 17% Favorable 46% Unfavorable 37% Angus King: Very favorable 29% Somewhat favorable 35% Somewhat unfavorable 14% Very unfavorable 14% DK/Refused 8% Favorable 64% Unfavorable 28% Paul LePage: Very favorable 31% Somewhat favorable 11% Somewhat unfavorable 9% Very unfavorable 45% DK/Refused 3% Favorable 43% Unfavorable 54% Male 51 / Female 49 Age: 18-29 2% 30-39 3% 40-49 10% 50-59 23% 60-64 18% 65-Up 42% Refused 2% County: Androscoggin 9% Aroostook 9% Cumberland 20% Franklin 1% Hancock 6% Kennebec 9% Knox 4% Lincoln 2% Oxford 5% Penobscot 7% Piscataquis 3% Sagadahoc 4% Somerset 4% Waldo 3% Washington 4% York 11% Refused 0% Media Market: Presque Isle 9% Bangor 26% Portland/Auburn 65% Congressional District: 51% 49%